Commercial Real Estate Improvement Several Years Away

dr dotzour

Dr. Dotzour shared a few more comments from his recent presentation in Fort Worth Texas to a group of Texas A&M Real Estate Professionals including:

Commercial real estate uptick several years away

Fort Worth Business Press
August 10, 2009

  • “More and more I’m thinking it’s the right time to buy a house,” Dotzour said. “With interest rates so low and the inventory is getting lower, I’m kind of tempted to tell people to pull the trigger,” Dotzour said.
  • “There are somewhere between 2 million and 6 million foreclosed homes in the nation and we’ve got to get these vacant foreclosures taken care of,” Dotzour said. “Either we need some tax help or we need a hurricane to land in Phoenix and go through Vegas and San Diego.”
  • According to Dotzour, banks tend to stop lending when its Tangible Common Equity (exposure to real estate investments) reaches 300 percent. Currently, Dallas-Fort Worth banks are “on the bubble” at 290 percent and Houston banks are at 287 percent.
  • For real estate professionals looking for financing, Dotzour suggested they look in markets where banks still have room to expand real estate exposure, such as in the Panhandle, where banks are at 104 percent.
  • “Right now banks are so exposed that they simply can’t follow through on threats to take properties back,” Dotzour said. “…Right now the buzz words in the banking system are ‘extend and pretend.’”

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